Trump discusses Iran ceasefire with Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim Al-Thani

Trump discussed Iran ceasefire efforts with Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim Al-Thani. The diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 now sits at 2% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

The US-Qatar conversation shows diplomatic channels are open, but odds for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 haven’t moved. This market trades $27,673/day face value, but actual USDC traded is a mere $613, indicating low conviction. The April 30 market for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran has ticked up to 5%, up from 3% 24 hours ago.

The gap between April and June markets in the Israel-Iran peace deal contract is wide. The June 30 market sits at 12%, meaning traders price a deal as far more likely if given an extra two months.

The diplomatic meeting market is thin: $972 is enough to move it 5 points. That lack of depth means few major players are willing to take a strong position, but it also means rapid price swings if new information drops.

For traders, a YES share for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 costs 2¢ and pays $1, a potential 50x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe in a significant shift in US-Iran relations within six days.

Watch for announcements from Qatar or the White House about further talks. A statement on Trump or Rubio’s travel plans could signal a shift.