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Trump has given Iran 10 days to either strike a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.1% from 12% last week.
Traders are skeptical about a quick resolution. The April 7 market is at 1.1%, showing little faith in immediate diplomacy. The April 15 market is slightly better at 6.5%, but still unlikely. With Trump’s deadline extension, April 30 odds hold at 17.5%, suggesting some hope for progress later.
Further out, May 31 odds are at 36.5% and June 30 at 51.5%, indicating growing optimism for a resolution. This suggests traders expect a catalyst between late April and May, with odds jumping by 19 points.
Trading volume shows hesitance to commit large sums short-term. USDC volumes are $22,948 for April 7 and $51,692 for April 15, indicating a thin market. It takes $12,367 to move April 7 odds by 5 points, making it volatile to large orders.
Trump’s deadline hints at possible diplomatic progress, but traders remain cautious. A YES share for April 7 offers a high return, but with only a 1.1% chance, rapid de-escalation seems unlikely. The real focus may be the April 30 to May 31 window, where a 19-point odds increase suggests expected developments.
Watch for Trump’s statements and any moves from Oman or Qatar. A scheduled meeting or softened language could quickly change the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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