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President Trump suggests a potential Iran deal while warning of an attack if no agreement is reached. US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Traders are wary, with the odds for April 7 dropping to 1%. The April 15 market also dipped to 6% YES, while April 30 decreased to 18%. The biggest shift was in the May 31 market, which slid from 46% to 36%.
Volume at $431,402 across all sub-markets, with $12,352 needed to move the April 7 price by 5 points, indicating a thin order book. A notable move was a 2-point drop in the May 31 market at 7:39 PM, reflecting the market’s reaction to Trump’s mixed signals.
The threat of escalation outweighs the potential for a deal in traders’ minds. The market views Trump’s warning as more than just rhetoric, given Iran’s previous rejection of ceasefire terms and its vow of retaliation. The April 7 deadline looks increasingly unlikely for a ceasefire, with traders pricing in continued hostilities.
Watch for statements from intermediaries like Oman and Qatar or any move by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Any concrete diplomatic progress could shift the markets significantly.
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