US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet as negotiation gaps widen ahead of deadline

US officials doubt the US-Iran negotiation gaps will close by Trump’s Tuesday deadline. Ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Traders face a bleak outlook. The April 7 market shows almost no chance of resolution, with odds dropping from 12% a week ago. The April 15 market sits at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market holds at 18% YES, suggesting some hope for a breakthrough later in the month.

Liquidity varies, with the April 7 contract seeing $1,439,535 in daily face value but only $22,948 in USDC traded. It takes $12,367 to shift the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop in the April 15 market, showing stability amid pessimism.

Negotiation gaps remain wide, souring sentiment. Traders are more hopeful as the timeline extends, with a 19-point odds increase between April 30 and May 31, suggesting an anticipated catalyst. However, Trump’s escalation threats and deadline extensions keep traders bearish.

At 18¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced — a 5.5x return. This bet requires belief in a diplomatic surprise. Until intermediaries like Oman shift language or activity, these odds reflect a tough road for peace.

Watch for any softening in Trump’s language or new talks by intermediaries. Hegseth’s Pentagon briefing on Friday could reveal military plans affecting negotiations.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES