Trump suggests a resolution with Iran is near, citing Saudi Arabia’s lack of opposition to the Hormuz blockade. The likelihood of a blockade lift by May 31 now sits at 84% YES, up from 79% yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 31 market spiked 4 points after Trump’s comments. The April 17 market sits at 12% YES, with traders watching short-term developments.

The April 19 market jumped 6 points to 25% YES, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in the coming days. The largest gap remains between April 19 and May 31, a 58-point spread that reflects strong confidence in a resolution during that window.

Why it matters

Trump’s comments point toward de-escalation, but neither Tehran nor Washington has taken concrete steps yet. With $30,880 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, the market is drawing real money. Order book depth of $1,902 to move 5 points on the May 31 market means prices won’t shift easily on small trades.

What to watch

Watch for Trump’s Truth Social posts or official statements from the Pentagon or White House. Any confirmation of talks or clarification of Saudi Arabia’s stance could move these markets fast.

Trade details

Buying YES at 84¢ pays $1 if the blockade lifts by May 31, a 1.19x return. The question is whether Trump’s optimism turns into actual diplomatic progress.

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