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President Trump suggested a U.S. withdrawal from Iran soon, but emphasized completing ongoing operations. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Trump’s remarks affected the April 15 market, dropping it to 6% YES from 8%. The April 30 market saw a sharper decline to 18% YES, down from 24%. The May 31 odds now stand at 36%, a significant drop from 46% yesterday. The notable change between April 30 and May 31, a 19-point jump, indicates traders expect a key event late next month.
Trading volume over the past 24 hours hit $431,402, against a face value of $3.7M. A 2-point spike at 5:08 PM in the April 30 market shows sensitivity to potential catalysts. With $12,352 needed to move the April 7 market 5 points, it remains vulnerable to large bets.
Trump’s statement is currently seen as noise, with @WhaleInsider lacking the influence to change the narrative. A YES share at 6¢ by April 15 pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 16.7x return. Traders need concrete progress or a dramatic shift in rhetoric for this to be viable.
CENTCOM’s next briefing or mediator-led talks involving Oman or Qatar could impact the market. A formal announcement or unexpected diplomatic breakthrough would be significant.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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