Trump: Iran agrees to suspend nuclear program indefinitely

President Trump stated Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits at 38.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

Trump’s announcement moved several related markets, particularly for April 30, May 31, and June 30. The April 30 deal odds rose to 61.5% YES, doubling from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market jumped to 74.5% YES, and June 30 is at 81.5%.

Actual USDC traded across these markets is $711,138, with a face value of $2,482,148. The April 22 market required $16,312 to move odds by 5 points, a relatively thick order book that takes real capital to shift. The largest single move was a 10-point drop in the May 31 market at 5:10 PM, a sign of sharp volatility.

This announcement could represent a real shift, though skepticism makes sense given previous rhetoric. At current prices, buying YES for April 22 at 15¢ offers a 6.67x return if resolved, but that requires believing a formal deal announcement is imminent within six days. The larger odds jumps for May and June suggest traders expect any substantive developments to come after April.

Key signals to watch: a joint US-Iran statement or confirmation from a neutral party like Pakistan. If Trump’s claim is more than posturing, expect rapid market adjustments. Any rhetoric suggesting talks have collapsed would send these markets sharply lower.

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