Trump: No fees for ships in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran negotiations

Trump’s statements on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian uranium have moved prediction markets. The likelihood of Trump announcing a lift on the US blockade of the Strait by May 31 sits at 86.5% YES, while odds of agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April are at 54.5% YES.

Market reaction

Trump’s comment about not imposing transit fees suggests de-escalation but hasn’t significantly shifted market odds on the blockade. The April 19 market for lifting the blockade sits at 17.5% YES, with only minor fluctuations. Traders appear to expect a catalyst after April 19: odds jump to 86.5% YES by May 31, pointing to expected progress in negotiations over that window.

Why it matters

Trump’s firm stance on transferring Iranian uranium to the US has dampened optimism that Iranian demands will be met. The April sanction relief market has odds at 54.5% YES, up slightly from 34% yesterday but still showing skepticism about a near-term deal.

Trading volume in these markets is modest but active. The Hormuz blockade market trades $5,868 in USDC daily, and the sanction relief market trades $1,975. The depth is thin: $3,730 and $285 respectively would move odds by five points in each market. Interest is consistent, but it doesn’t take much capital to shift prices.

What to watch

Trump’s rhetoric looks more like a negotiating tactic than a policy shift. His hardline position on uranium transfer may be a bargaining chip to push Iran toward concessions. A YES share in the sanction relief market at 54.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.78x return. That bet depends on believing a breakthrough can happen in the next 12 days.

Watch for movement from mediators like Pakistan and Egypt, who could broker a compromise. Any announcement of resumed talks or shifts in Trump’s or Iran’s public positions could jolt these markets.

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