Trump plans to fire FBI Director Kash Patel amid negative media coverage

Trump is reportedly planning to fire FBI Director Kash Patel due to negative media coverage. “Kash Patel out by June 30” sits at 50.5% YES, down from 56% yesterday.

The June 30 contract trades at 50.5% YES with 67 days left until resolution. Odds have cooled from 56% yesterday but are still well above the 30% level from a week ago. The December 31 contract is at 77.5% YES, meaning traders broadly expect Patel won’t last the year.

The term structure shows the biggest jump between April 30 and June 30, a 42-point increase over 61 days. Traders expect the action to happen in that window. With only six days left until the April 30 resolution, that contract sits at just 9% YES, so almost no one expects an abrupt exit this month.

Daily volume on the June 30 contract is $3,979 in USDC, and only $107 is needed to move the price 5 points, which means liquidity is thin. The largest price move was a 3-point spike at 2:33 AM, likely from a single trade or small cluster of orders.

The Politico report carries weight because it names a specific reason (negative media coverage) and a specific timeline for Patel’s potential removal. A YES share at 50.5¢ pays $1 if Patel is out by June 30, a straightforward 2x return. The bet now depends on whether the White House confirms or walks back the report.

Watch for official statements from Trump or the White House, and any public moves by Patel himself. A resignation announcement or public confirmation of the firing from Trump would likely push the June 30 contract sharply higher.

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