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President Trump has suggested going to war with Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. This has dropped the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% a day ago.
The ceasefire market reacted strongly. The April 15 market fell to 18% from 20%, while the April 30 market rose slightly to 38.5% after a brief spike. The largest shift is a 20-point jump between April 15 and April 30, suggesting traders expect key events around mid-April.
Meanwhile, the US forces entering Iran market saw an increase. Trump’s rhetoric aligns with ongoing military actions under Operation Epic Fury, raising the chances of US engagement in Iran. Volume is at $1.37M across all sub-markets, but it takes $15K to move the April 7 price 5 points, indicating potential volatility.
Trump’s statement signals a strategic shift. With US-Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliation affecting stability, the market sees this as a move towards regime change. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 7 pays $1 if it resolves — at 8¢, that’s a 12.5x return. Traders would need significant diplomatic changes to justify that bet.
Watch for Secretary Rubio’s diplomatic actions, CENTCOM updates, or intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar. Any change in Trump’s stance could shift these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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