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Iran blames the US for escalating tensions, while Trump suggests Iran might be open to a deal. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Traders remain cautious despite Trump’s comments. The April 7 market fell 2 points to 8%. The April 30 market rose 4 points to 38%. The largest shift in odds is between April 15 and April 30, indicating traders expect a potential trigger during that period.
With $1,365,780 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours, ceasefire markets are active. It takes $15,138 to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, showing some market depth. A 4-point jump in the April 30 market at 10:56 AM suggests a large order reacting to Trump’s remarks.
Trump’s suggestion of progress might be more talk than substance. His tweet lacks details—no scheduled talks or named intermediaries. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire happens within five days, offering a 12.5x return. Traders need concrete signs, like resumed talks or intermediary involvement, to bet on this.
Watch for any official announcements of talks, especially involving Oman or Qatar. Trump’s words might influence sentiment, but actions like appointing an envoy or scheduling negotiations will impact this market.
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