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Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Traders reacted sharply, with declines across all short-term ceasefire markets. The April 7 market is nearly a write-off at 1% YES. The April 15 odds are at 6% YES, while April 30 shows 18% YES, reflecting skepticism about a quick resolution. The largest gap in odds is between April 30 and May 31, jumping 19 points, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in May.
USDC traded across these markets totals $430,773 in the last 24 hours, with $22,948 in the April 7 sub-market alone. Order book depth shows $12,367 needed to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating a thin market where a single large order could significantly sway odds. The largest single move was a 1-point drop at 1:49 AM in the April 15 market, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric is familiar to these markets. For a YES share to pay off at 1¢ by April 7, rapid diplomatic developments are needed, which currently seem unlikely. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, offering a 100x return, but it’s a long shot without signs of negotiations or softened rhetoric.
Watch for Trump’s next statements and any moves by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Confirmation of talks or a shift in language could sharply alter the market landscape.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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