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Iran has announced plans to retaliate against US attacks, rejecting US influence in negotiations. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Iran’s aggressive statement, shared on social media, has driven market odds down for several dates. The April 7 market is stagnant at 1%, just days away. Longer-term markets are also affected: April 15 is at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday, while the April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24%. The May 31 market saw the largest drop, now at 36.5% YES, down from 46% in 24 hours.
Trading volume at $431,402 indicates strong interest but also shows the cost of market influence. Moving the April 7 market by 5 points requires $12,352, meaning even small bets can shift odds. A 2-point drop in the May 31 market highlights trader doubt about near-term peace.
Iran’s threat raises tensions, reducing peace prospects. While the statement lacks a major source’s backing, it still affects markets. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire at 1¢ offers a 99x return, but this requires belief in an unlikely quick resolution.
Watch for official statements from figures like Trump, Rubio, or CENTCOM. Changes in rhetoric or new talks could be crucial. Until then, expect ongoing volatility and pressure on ceasefire odds.
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