Trump threatens US-UK trade deal over UK’s Iran stance

Trump threatened to scrap the US-UK trade deal over British opposition to military action against Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for oil sanction relief in April now sits at 36% YES, down from 38% yesterday.

Market reaction

The Iranian demands market dropped as Trump’s rhetoric pointed to continued resistance to Iranian conditions. The US blockade of Hormuz announcement market for May 31 holds at 83.5% YES, meaning traders expect the blockade to persist until at least late May.

Why it matters

Volume on the Iranian sanction relief market is $23,370 in USDC. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 7-point spike driven by sudden policy announcements. Traders are pricing in skepticism about a swift diplomatic resolution. At 36¢, a YES position on Trump’s sanction relief by April pays $1, a 2.78x return. Given Trump’s current posture, those odds reflect low confidence in any concessions to Iran.

What to watch

Trump’s next statements, whether on Truth Social or through official channels, are the most likely catalysts for market moves. Any shift toward softer rhetoric or unexpected diplomatic contact with Iran would reprice these contracts quickly.

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