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President Trump plans to announce progress in Iran’s military campaign, with potential troop withdrawals and a ceasefire if Iran offers concessions. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Traders in the April 7 market remain skeptical, with odds dropping. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The April 30 market rose to 38% YES from 36%, suggesting traders expect developments by mid-April. The biggest jump is between April 15 and April 30, a 20-point increase, indicating significant expected changes.
Despite large trades, actual money shows modest interest. With $205,330 in USDC trading daily in the April 7 market, $15,138 shifts the price 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM. For April 15, $594,502 in USDC daily means $43,954 moves the price 5 points, showing more stability but still sensitive to large orders.
Trump’s announcement aligns with recent de-escalation signals, potentially affecting ceasefire odds. If Iran offers nuclear and missile concessions, odds could shift. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 resolves at $1—offering a 12.5x return if a ceasefire is declared soon. Traders need to believe a breakthrough is imminent for that bet to pay off.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and any softening rhetoric from Tehran. The Sultan of Oman or Qatar could mediate, with any confirmation of talks boosting odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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