Pakistan steps in as intermediary in US-Iran crisis

Pakistan is acting as a mediator in the US-Iran conflict, with a 10-day ceasefire extension now in place. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have risen to 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday.

The April 30 market saw a 4-point increase at 10:56 AM, indicating traders view mid-April as a potential turning point. The April 7 market dropped to 8.5% YES from 10% — suggesting no immediate breakthroughs are expected.

With $1,365,780 in USDC traded over 24 hours, these markets are liquid but still volatile. It takes $15,138 to move the April 7 price by 5 points, showing a decent order book. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, highlighting the impact of modest trades.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator adds complexity, but without tangible progress like scheduled talks, markets stay cautious. At 38.5¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if resolved. This bet hinges on a significant diplomatic breakthrough in the next 28 days.

Watch for US or Iranian statements acknowledging Pakistan’s efforts or more mediation from Oman. Trump’s language in upcoming addresses could also signal changes — terms like ‘deal’ or ‘productive’ would influence these markets.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES