Trump weighs military action or talks as US-Iran ceasefire nears end

Trump is in discussions about Iran with his national security adviser, weighing options between resuming bombing or sending a negotiating team to Pakistan. The US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 10, 2026, is currently at 2% YES.

The possibility of renewed military action has moved the US-Iran ceasefire end markets. No diplomatic breakthrough over the weekend keeps pressure on. Sub-markets expiring in April remain speculative given the limited days left for resolution. Face value volume is still at zero, indicating traders are waiting for a clear signal before committing.

For the US-Iran peace deal by April 30, odds sit at 2% YES, down from 61% a week ago. With just 6 days left, traders expect little progress. The May 31 contract is at 26% YES, suggesting some hope for a catalyst in the coming month. The June 30 market is the most optimistic at 43% YES, pricing in the possibility that more time could produce a negotiated outcome.

Actual USDC traded across peace deal markets amounts to $854,588, with significant order book depth required to push prices. The April 30 market’s largest move was a 6-point spike, likely a speculative bet rather than a reaction to any fundamental change.

Given the meeting’s context, traders are pricing in military escalation rather than a diplomatic outcome. Buying YES shares at 2¢ would pay $1 if a deal is reached by April 30, a 50x return. But that bet only makes sense if there are concrete signs of impending talks.

Watch for announcements from Pakistan or a sudden change in Trump’s tone on Truth Social. The next major signal would be a confirmed negotiation date or an unexpected diplomatic gesture.

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