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Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues as US-Iran tensions escalate, with the market for lifting the blockade by May 31 at
Market reaction
The mutual blockade between the US and Iran raises the stakes across multiple timeframes. The April 19 market is at 23.5% YES, and the April 17 market at 15.5% YES. Both show traders expect the blockade to persist through the near term. The May 31 market stays high, but the largest recent move was a modest 2-point spike, suggesting limited belief in swift de-escalation. The term structure points to traders positioning for prolonged tensions rather than a sudden resolution.
Why it matters
The blockade market trades $56,702 in actual USDC daily, with $250 enough to move prices 5 points. This is a thin market, susceptible to swings from larger trades. The most notable recent move was a 24-point spike in the April 17 market, showing how fast sentiment can shift on new information.
What to watch
At 20¢, a YES share for April 19 pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a 5x payout. That bet requires confidence in a rapid diplomatic shift, which current tensions make unlikely. The signals that would actually move these markets: Iranian compliance steps, US diplomatic overtures, Trump’s Truth Social posts, and any statements from CENTCOM or the White House. A change in rhetoric or military posture could reprice these contracts quickly.
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