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A tweet from @MarioNawfal questions if Trump will end the Iran conflict without targeting Kharg Island. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 8% from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Traders view the tweet as bearish for a ceasefire, speculating on escalation due to Kharg Island’s importance. The April 7 market dropped 2 points to 8%. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, and the April 30 market is at 38% YES, reflecting skepticism about de-escalation as airstrikes continue.
The ceasefire markets are active, with the April 7 market processing $205,330 in USDC daily. A $15,138 trade shifts odds by 5 points. The biggest move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, likely due to the tweet.
While the tweet’s impact is limited by its source, it highlights ongoing uncertainty. Traders are wary of military escalation or a shift to ground operations. The odds jump between April 15 and April 30 suggests a critical event expected in mid-April. A YES share at 8¢ could pay $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 7, offering a 12.5x return, but this requires rapid diplomatic changes.
Watch for updates from Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, and CENTCOM. Any news on back-channel talks or intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar could significantly alter the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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