UK opposes US blockade of Iranian ports, complicating resolution timeline

The UK has voiced opposition to the US blockade of Iranian ports, and the market for Trump announcing the blockade will be lifted by May 31 has dropped to 58.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.

The UK’s stance is also visible in the market for UK warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which sits at just 1.1% YES, pricing in almost no chance of UK naval involvement. The blockade-lifted odds fell sharply, with a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM yesterday suggesting some traders tried to catch a falling knife.

The “blockade lifted” market saw $95,253 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with $8,975 needed to move the price 5 points — a moderately liquid book. UK opposition has injected new uncertainty into what traders had been pricing as a more likely resolution.

The practical implication: the blockade may last longer, pushing back timelines for normalization in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders bearish on a quick resolution now have a concrete reason to hold their positions. A YES share for Trump’s announcement at 58.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.71x return. But that requires believing the US finds a workaround for UK non-cooperation in 37 days.

Watch for NATO’s response and any statements from CENTCOM. If UK opposition spreads into broader NATO reluctance, expect further downward pressure on blockade resolution odds.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.