Ukraine downs Iranian drones in Middle East amid ongoing conflict: Zelensky

Ukraine’s President Zelensky says Ukrainian forces shot down Iranian drones in the Middle East during the ongoing war involving Iran and regional allies. The odds of countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15 are at 9% YES, down from 16% a week ago.

Market reaction

The tentative ceasefire among Iran, the US, and Israel has pushed down the likelihood of further escalation. The April 30 market sits at 22% YES, down from 28% a week ago. The April 15 market has dropped more sharply, with traders pricing in de-escalation as the ceasefire holds.

Meanwhile, markets for Iran’s military action against other countries remain at 100% YES across all relevant sub-markets. Traders expect no change in Iran’s posture by April 30. The flat odds at 100% suggest skepticism about whether the ceasefire will actually constrain Iran’s behavior.

Why it matters

USDC volume across the markets tied to potential military action against Iran is $6,516. The order book in the April 15 market requires $447 to move the price 5 points, which means moderate liquidity but room for sharp moves on large trades. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike at 1:19 PM, likely driven by a single large order.

What to watch

With the ceasefire in place, the probability of other countries escalating against Iran has dropped. Buying YES at 9¢ would pay $1 if the market resolves YES by April 15, a 11x return. That bet requires confidence that negotiations break down within 3 days.

Watch for official statements from CENTCOM, the White House, or the Iranian Foreign Ministry that could confirm or undermine the ceasefire. Any such announcement could move these odds fast before the April 15 deadline.

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