US and Israel increase pressure on Iran amid ceasefire talks

The US and Israel are ramping up diplomatic and military pressure on Iran. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, while markets tracking whether other countries will conduct military action against Iran have jumped.

The ceasefire markets for April 15, April 30, and beyond all hold at 100% YES despite the military pressure news. Traders appear to be pricing in a diplomatic outcome, though recent military rhetoric could challenge that assumption.

The likelihood of other countries joining military actions against Iran by April 15 has risen to 9.2%, up from 5% a day ago. The April 30 market sits at 21.5%, showing increased expectations of regional escalation.

The “other countries” military action market trades $6,516 in USDC daily, with a thin order book where $447 moves the price 5 points. That thinness makes it susceptible to swings from single large trades.

For contrarians, a YES share in the military action market at 9¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 11.1x return if escalation occurs.

Watch for Netanyahu’s upcoming statements and any US military movements in the Gulf. Either could move these markets quickly.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.