US blockade keeps Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero despite White House claims

The White House says the Strait of Hormuz is open, but commercial traffic remains near zero due to a U.S. blockade. The market for Trump announcing the blockade has been lifted by May 31 sits at 88.5% YES.

The White House statement hasn’t moved traders much. Odds for the blockade being lifted by April 19 hold at 23.5% YES, after a 6-point drop yesterday. The May 31 market is steady, which suggests traders expect a resolution closer to the end of May rather than in the near term.

The market for UK warships passing through the strait by April 30 is at 9.5% YES, down from 12% last week. That decline tracks with the broader skepticism: the blockade is still in effect and the risk environment hasn’t changed.

Total USDC traded across these markets is $33,928. It takes $3,730 to move the May 31 market 5 percentage points, a sign of thin liquidity and cautious positioning. Most traders appear to be waiting for concrete policy shifts or announcements from Trump or the U.S. Navy before committing.

The gap between the White House’s “open” framing and actual shipping data suggests rhetoric, not reality. A YES share in the May 31 market costs 88.5¢, so traders buying at that price need to believe in meaningful de-escalation within the next 45 days.

Watch for official statements from Trump or CENTCOM that clarify the blockade’s status. Shipping data matters too: any actual increase in vessel transits through the strait would be the clearest signal that the blockade is genuinely ending.

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