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U.S. and Israeli forces targeted Isfahan, Iran, while the USS Gerald R. Ford returned to the Middle East. The odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 66% YES, up from 55% just 24 hours ago.
The April 30 market peaked at 66% YES after the strike, with a 6-point drop at 1:12 AM from 62% to 56%, showing volatility. The December 31 market also rose to 74.5% YES, up from 64% the previous day, as traders anticipate further escalation.
The April 30 market shows strong engagement with $2,338,269 in USDC traded daily. It takes $185,131 to shift its price 5 points, indicating institutional interest. The March 31 market remains inactive at 0.1% YES, with just $8,522 in daily USDC.
The Isfahan strike highlights the U.S. focus on reducing Iran’s military capabilities. The USS Gerald R. Ford’s presence suggests ongoing tension. At 66¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if U.S. ground forces enter Iran, offering a 1.5x return. Traders expect more military action as diplomacy stalls.
Watch for CENTCOM updates or Pentagon briefings; announcements of ground operations could push odds higher. Statements from Hegseth or Congressional War Powers authorization may be crucial.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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