US naval blockade disrupts Iranian oil exports to China

The US naval blockade continues to disrupt Iran’s oil exports to China, turning back vessels and hiking evasion costs. The chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June sits at 68% YES.

Ongoing enforcement is reflected in the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market, which currently sits at 74% YES, down from 82% yesterday. Traders are reassessing the likelihood of Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 given the scale of current disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal market resolves in 68 days. The odds suggest traders doubt a quick resolution while the blockade remains in place.

The Trump blockade announcement market has $27,582 in daily USDC volume. It takes $8,549 to move the odds by 5 points, indicating solid liquidity. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market shows no recent volume data, but the odds shift points to traders positioning for extended disruptions.

At 26¢, a YES share in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market pays $1 if traffic normalizes by June, a 3.8x return. That bet requires a major diplomatic breakthrough or a shift in US naval strategy before resolution.

Watch for official announcements from the White House and CENTCOM on policy changes. China’s diplomatic response to the economic pressure from disrupted oil imports could also move these markets.

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