US forces ready to resume combat if Iran peace deal fails, says Hegseth

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said US forces in the Middle East are prepared to restart combat operations if Iran doesn’t agree to a peace deal. The odds for Trump announcing a US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21 sit at 7.5%.

The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 15.5%, up from 20% a day ago. Hegseth’s statement raises the perceived risk of renewed hostilities, hitting short-term markets harder. The market for a peace deal by April 30 is up 19% over the past week, now at 38.5%.

The April 30 market jump suggests traders expect either a breakthrough or an escalation within the next two weeks. With only five days until the April 21 ceasefire expiration, any developments will likely trigger swift market reactions.

Combined daily volume across these markets is over $2.4M in face value, with actual USDC traded at $686,627. The April 22 peace deal market requires $38,743 to move 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was an 8-point drop in the April 22 market, likely driven by Hegseth’s comments.

Hegseth’s statement signals potential escalation but isn’t definitive. A YES share on the April 21 ceasefire end at 7.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 9x return. That bet requires confidence in imminent military action or a breakdown in talks within five days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, which could shift the ceasefire outlook.

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