New single-family home sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in May 2026, according to US Census Bureau data released on June 24. That’s a 7.3% decline from April and 6.8% lower than the same month last year. Meanwhile, the inventory of new homes available for sale climbed to 496,000 units, translating to a 10.3-month supply, the highest level since 2009.

The numbers tell a split story

On the new construction side, sales are falling, inventory is piling up, and the median price of a new home sits at $424,900, up 2.0% from April but essentially flat compared to a year ago. Builders are sitting on nearly half a million unsold homes with fewer buyers walking through the door each month.

The existing home market looks almost healthy. Data from the National Association of Realtors shows existing-home sales actually rose 3.2% month-over-month, hitting an annualized rate of 4.17 million units in May. Existing home inventory stands at 1.55 million units, which works out to just 4.5 months of supply.

Why 10.3 months matters

A healthy housing market typically carries somewhere around 4 to 6 months of supply. At 10.3 months, the new home market is sitting at roughly double the upper end of that range.

New home inventory rose 2.3% just from April to May. Sales fell 7.3% in the same period. Economists warn that prolonged high inventory levels may pressure builders to reconsider pricing strategies or delay new project starts.

The next update on housing statistics is expected by July 24. If the 10.3-month supply figure holds or climbs higher, the question becomes how much pain builders are willing to absorb before they meaningfully cut production.