US initiates naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions

The U.S. has initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the market on whether another country will take military action against Iran by April 15 has jumped to 9.2% YES, up from 5% yesterday.

The blockade, supported by U.S. allies, suggests growing coordination among nations against Iran. Odds for military action by April 30 are at 21.5% YES, a less dramatic shift. The 12-point gap between the April 15 and April 30 deadlines indicates traders expect a significant development later in the month rather than in the next few days.

The “other countries” market has $75,432 in combined 24-hour face value but only $6,516 in actual USDC traded. It takes just $447 to move the April 15 odds by 5 points, meaning a few large orders can cause outsized swings. The largest move was a 3-point spike at 1:19 PM, likely triggered by the blockade news.

The blockade raises the stakes, but the thin market could exaggerate moves beyond what the underlying probability warrants. A YES share at 9¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 11x return. Betting on military action within three days assumes rapid escalation, and the source tier suggests caution.

Watch for official statements from NATO or allied nations confirming or denying direct military action. Any unilateral moves could spike volatility in these odds.

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