American and Iranian negotiators have hammered out a draft 60-day memorandum of understanding that would extend the current ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and kick off formal talks about Iran’s nuclear program. The catch: President Donald Trump still has to sign off on it.

The preliminary deal, reported by Axios on May 28, would allow Iran to freely export oil for the duration of the 60-day window while US forces remain positioned in the region.

How we got here

The current conflict escalation traces back to late February 2026, when tensions between Washington and Tehran spiraled into what many feared could become a broader regional war. By early April, both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire, a fragile arrangement that bought time but resolved nothing fundamental.

The draft MOU doesn’t just extend the pause in hostilities. It creates a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily.

Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are reportedly involved on the US side, with Pakistan playing a mediation role.

GOP pushback is already loud

Senator Roger Wicker called the 60-day ceasefire framework “a disaster.” Senator Lindsey Graham has also voiced staunch opposition, suggesting the agreement could undermine previous US military efforts in the region.

What this means for crypto investors

Bitcoin is hovering below $73,000, and despite minor upticks tied to de-escalation news, the largest digital asset hasn’t found the momentum to break higher.

If the MOU gets finalized and the Strait of Hormuz reopens without incident, lower energy prices would reduce input costs across the economy. If the deal collapses, a return to active hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices surging. The two-week ceasefire from April already demonstrated how fragile these arrangements can be.

Iran being allowed to sell oil freely for 60 days would increase global supply, putting downward pressure on crude prices. That’s generally positive for consumer spending and economic activity, but it also removes one of the fear-driven catalysts that has supported crypto prices during the conflict.