US-Iran ceasefire official, markets settle with $3.2M traded

The US-Iran ceasefire, announced on April 8, 2026, is now official. The ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

All related sub-markets have fully resolved. The April 15 sub-market is at 100%. The April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 markets are all at 100% YES. These markets are settled.

Meanwhile, odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 dropped slightly. That market sits at 11.5% YES, down from 8% to 10% over the past week. The ceasefire implies a regime stable enough to negotiate, which deflates collapse odds.

Ceasefire markets saw $3.23M in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The regime fall market, by contrast, traded just $36K in actual USDC, making it far less liquid and more prone to price swings from larger orders.

The ceasefire is a tactical pause, not a strategic resolution. Israel views it as a chance to regroup, while Iran rebuilds its capabilities. Traders betting on regime instability should watch for IRGC fractures or major protests. At 12¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, an 8.3x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need signals of internal fracture soon.

Watch for IRGC leadership moves and any sudden public absences from Mojtaba Khamenei. Either could precede regime instability.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.