Attacker mints 1B unbacked DOT on Ethereum, sells for $238K

An attacker exploited a Polkadot token bridge on Ethereum, minting 1 billion unbacked DOT and selling them for $238,000. The Ethereum above $1,800 on April 13 market sits at 99.8% YES, unchanged from yesterday. On-chain DOT prices collapsed close to zero on several Ethereum sidechains, while centralized exchange prices held steady.

The odds for Ethereum remaining above $1,800 through April 13 are priced at 99.8¢. The term structure shows consistent confidence with little variation across short-term maturities. Liquidity is thin: just $7,967 is needed to move the odds by 5 points.

The exploit exposed a bridge-level vulnerability but hasn’t moved Ethereum’s price market. Volume on the April 13 contract is $11,492 in USDC, and the odds haven’t budged. Traders are treating this as an isolated bridge failure, not a problem with Ethereum itself. That distinction matters because bridge exploits target third-party smart contracts rather than the base protocol.

For Ethereum’s price to actually drop below $1,800 on this, the exploit would need to reveal broader systemic vulnerabilities or trigger a wider loss of confidence. At current levels, a YES share pays out $1, meaning traders see almost no risk of Ethereum falling below the threshold before April 13.

Watch for any statements from Vitalik Buterin or responses from major exchanges. How the bridge team handles the postmortem, and whether funds are recovered, could shift sentiment on future contracts.