US-Iran focus shifts to temporary agreement, easing ceasefire end concerns

US and Iranian negotiators are now focusing on a temporary agreement rather than a comprehensive peace deal. The odds of Trump announcing the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21, 2026, sit at 8.0% YES, down from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

The pivot toward a temporary memorandum has traders adjusting their expectations. The April 21 ceasefire end market dropped 22 percentage points in a week, suggesting more confidence in continuing talks rather than an immediate return to conflict. With only five days until resolution, the odds show skepticism about an abrupt end to the current ceasefire.

In parallel, the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April has ticked up slightly to 36.0% YES. Reuters reported a narrowing of negotiation gaps, which likely contributed to this increase. The focus on unfreezing Iranian assets as part of a temporary agreement is a key driver.

The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 remains unaffected, holding steady at 39.2% YES. Traders appear to treat the Strait of Hormuz negotiations as separate from the nuclear issue.

Why it matters

The shift to a temporary memorandum signals a de-escalation effort, at least for now. Face value trading volume is $61,153 for the ceasefire end market, but actual USDC traded is a modest $5,810. With just $1,700 required to move the odds five points, even moderate trades can move this market substantially. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike, which illustrates how thin the liquidity is.

What to watch

If you think a temporary agreement is imminent, buying YES shares at 8¢ for a 12.5x return looks attractive on paper, but the odds show a clear preference for continued negotiations. Watch for official announcements from the White House or Iranian state media on the terms of any agreement. Any statement from Trump on social media could also move the market quickly.

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