US, Iran, Pakistan begin trilateral talks in Islamabad amid ceasefire

The US, Iran, and Pakistan have started trilateral talks in Islamabad, the first face-to-face negotiations since the war began. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 remains uncertain, but the talks increase the likelihood of diplomatic progress.

Ceasefire markets are at 100% across all dates, consistent with the current pause in hostilities. The permanent peace deal market and the diplomatic meeting market have zero volume so far, suggesting traders are waiting for concrete results from Islamabad before committing.

The gap between full certainty in ceasefire markets and zero activity in peace deal markets captures the distance between a temporary halt in fighting and a lasting agreement. Traders appear unwilling to price in a permanent deal until the talks produce something specific.

These are the first trilateral negotiations of the current conflict, with Pakistan acting as mediator between US and Iranian positions. If a permanent deal emerges, it would reshape regional dynamics. For traders, a YES share on a peace deal is a high-risk, high-reward position that depends on whether these talks produce a signed agreement.

Watch for announcements from Islamabad, particularly statements from Trump, Araghchi, and Sharif. A joint readout or confirmation of continued engagement would be bullish for peace deal odds. Reports of disagreement or a breakdown in talks could push odds back down.

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