The United States and Iran have agreed to stop shooting at each other. After more than 100 days of conflict that choked off a fifth of the world’s oil supply, both sides announced a tentative peace framework on June 14-15 that includes an immediate halt to military operations, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.

Markets reacted exactly how you’d expect when a major chokepoint for global energy suddenly reopens. Oil dropped roughly 5% to around $80 per barrel, and Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 as risk appetite returned in force.

What’s in the deal

The framework centers on a memorandum of understanding containing approximately 12 to 14 points, though the full text hasn’t been publicly released yet. Both parties are scheduled to sign the MOU in Geneva on June 19, with a final comprehensive peace settlement targeted within 60 days of that signing.

Pakistan played a mediating role in brokering the agreement, alongside other regional stakeholders. The deal reportedly addresses sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program, two issues that have defined US-Iran tensions for decades.

President Donald Trump leaned into the economic angle of the announcement, declaring “Let the oil flow!” Iranian officials, for their part, confirmed what they called a definitive end to warfare on all fronts.

The conflict’s toll on markets

The war, which began in approximately early March 2026, hit global energy markets like a freight train. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for transporting roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Shutting it down didn’t just raise oil prices. It disrupted supply chains, shipping routes, and economic projections across every major economy.

The 5% drop in oil prices to around $80 per barrel represents the market pricing in the likely return of normal shipping flows. Crypto markets moved in the opposite direction, and quickly. Bitcoin’s rally above $65,000 reflects a broader shift in risk sentiment.

What this means for crypto investors

During the conflict, crypto markets experienced volatility as traders priced in war escalation, energy supply disruption, and potential sanctions expansion. The move above $65,000 is a pure macro trade. Investors are rotating back into risk assets because the single biggest source of global uncertainty just got meaningfully smaller.

A tentative framework is not a signed treaty. The 60-day timeline for a final deal gives both sides plenty of room to walk things back if negotiations stall. And the MOU’s provisions on sanctions relief and nuclear issues are exactly the kind of politically charged topics that have derailed US-Iran talks multiple times before.

Traders should watch the Geneva signing on June 19 closely and monitor Strait of Hormuz shipping data in the weeks that follow as the most reliable real-time indicator of whether this peace framework is holding or fraying. For crypto traders specifically, oil prices are the key metric to watch. As long as crude stays near $80 or drifts lower, the macro environment stays favorable for digital assets.