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Iran’s frozen assets abroad, totaling $100-120 billion, remain locked as the U.S. demands significant concessions. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at
In Islamabad, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down over Iran’s insistence on asset release before dismantling its nuclear program. U.S. threats of military action if no deal is reached add pressure on odds for a permanent peace deal by April 22. The ceasefire market reflects a certainty that hasn’t caught up with the breakdown in talks.
The US-Iran Ceasefire market across all dates holds at 100% YES, a clear disconnect from what’s happening diplomatically. Zero trades in the last 24 hours suggest these odds are stale rather than informed. The term structure shows no price change across upcoming dates, meaning traders are either ignoring the news or expecting a quick diplomatic resolution.
Volume tells the real story: zero trades and no new money entering the market. Traders are sitting on the sidelines, possibly waiting for clearer signals or deciding the current odds don’t justify the risk. The Crude Oil market could see action separately, since threats to the Strait of Hormuz would push prices up if military options are pursued.
At 100% YES, a ceasefire bet offers no upside, yet unresolved asset disputes and explicit military threats from the U.S. suggest these odds are due for a correction. Any escalation around Hormuz or a formal walkout from talks would force repricing.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or new diplomatic initiatives from Qatar or Oman. Either could signal a shift in the current impasse.
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