US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan have centered on uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief. The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 is at 31.6% YES, down from 50% yesterday.
The April 30 enrichment market dropped sharply, pointing to growing skepticism about a near-term agreement. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 37.5% YES.
The Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief market is at 39.5% YES. Traders are nearly evenly split on whether the US will offer sanctions relief, with Iran continuing to insist on a full lifting of sanctions as a precondition.
USDC volume tells the story more clearly: $34,430 in the enrichment market and $80,435 in the ceasefire market. Traders have put more than twice as much money behind the ceasefire outcome. The enrichment market is thin enough that just $74 could move the odds by 5 points, making it vulnerable to large single trades.
A YES share for uranium enrichment at 31.6¢ pays $1 if Iran agrees by April 30, a 3.6x return. That bet requires believing a breakthrough happens within the next 12 days.
Watch for statements from Ali Khamenei or IAEA involvement. Any confirmation of resumed talks or a reduction in military rhetoric could move these markets quickly.
