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US-Iran talks in Islamabad are set to resume Sunday, with the ceasefire market holding at
The April 30 and May 31 markets are priced the same, with no spread on any key date. Traders have uniformly priced in diplomatic success.
The permanent peace deal market is where opportunity may exist. Continued high-level talks could push expectations higher for a formal resolution before the April 22 deadline, but without specific commitments or breakthroughs, the market still reflects uncertainty about a final agreement by month’s end.
No substantial trading volume has been reported, likely because the 100% odds across ceasefire sub-markets leave no room to trade. This quiet market suggests traders are waiting for concrete developments before shifting positions on a permanent peace deal.
The continuation of negotiations is more of a diplomatic holding pattern than a breakthrough. At 100¢, a YES share pays $1 with zero upside. The real action is in the peace deal outcomes.
Watch for statements from Vice President JD Vance and any announcements from Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A confirmed signing or formal announcement would move the peace deal market significantly.
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