US ISM Services PMI falls to 54.0 in June, missing estimates as growth cools slightly
The services sector stayed in expansion territory but lost a little steam, with prices easing and employment finally picking up.
The US services sector kept growing in June, but the pace slipped just enough to disappoint. The Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI came in at 54.0, down from 54.5 in May and a tick below market expectations of around 54.2.
A reading above 50 means expansion, so the sector is still growing. But the direction matters, and right now the arrow is pointing slightly downward.
What the numbers actually say
Business activity, which tracks how much work service firms are actually doing, fell to 55.4 from 57.7 in May. New orders, a forward-looking gauge of demand, slipped to 55.1 from 57.3.
The employment index was the bright spot. It rose to 51.2, crossing above 50 for the first time since February. That means services firms added workers in June, reversing a stretch of labor contraction that had quietly persisted for several months.
The prices index provided the other notable piece of good news. It dropped to 67.7 from 71.3 in May, a meaningful move suggesting that inflationary pressure inside the services sector is starting to ease. Services inflation has been one of the stickiest problems for the Federal Reserve, so any softening here is data the central bank will notice.
The report was released on July 6, with the schedule shifted back one business day to account for the July 4 holiday.
Context: 23 months of consecutive expansion
The services sector has now recorded expansion for 23 consecutive months as of May’s reading.
Manufacturing data released earlier also showed some cooling, with that PMI sliding to 53.3 in June.
What this means for crypto and risk assets
The prices index falling from 71.3 to 67.7 is relevant for the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Persistent services inflation has been one of the main arguments against Fed rate cuts this year. If that pressure is genuinely easing, it opens the door for the Fed to ease policy through normal channels rather than crisis-mode pivots.
The risk to watch is whether the deceleration in new orders, from 57.3 to 55.1, continues in the coming months.