US-Israel war on Iran triggers worst-ever energy crisis: IEA

International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol declared the US-Israel war on Iran has caused the worst-ever energy crisis. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is now priced at 35% YES as traders price in escalating oil costs from the conflict.

Market reaction

The crisis originates from Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted 12-13 million barrels/day and forced a record release from strategic reserves. The market for crude oil hitting $90 by June sits at 35% YES, with traders assigning a high probability of price spikes as the conflict continues. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Alexander Novak are the figures to watch, since their decisions on oil output will directly affect pricing.

On the diplomatic side, odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 have ticked up to 3.4% YES. Traders are skeptical about near-term diplomacy, particularly after the collapse of the recent ceasefire.

Why it matters

The crude oil market has seen zero trading volume in the last 24 hours, but that could change fast as the crisis develops. With the blockade still in place, even minor news could trigger large price swings in this thin trading environment.

What to watch

Buying YES at 35¢ offers a potential 2.86x return if crude oil reaches $90 by June 30. That bet depends on the blockade holding and further escalation, with no resolution in sight. Track OPEC output announcements and any US diplomatic moves toward Iran over the next 71 days.

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