U.S. and Israeli airstrikes hit Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran as part of the ongoing 2026 Iran war, pushing the Iranian regime fall market to 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Mehrabad is a logistical hub for Iran’s military operations, and the strikes are part of a broader campaign to degrade that infrastructure. The Iranian regime fall market now trades at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ago. Daily face value is $385,189, though actual USDC traded is $30,969, with $26,254 needed to move the price 5 points.

The Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran by June 30 market is unchanged at 6.5% YES. Pahlavi has not been mentioned in connection with the current strikes, which explains the lack of movement.

The Mehrabad strike fits a pattern of targeting Iran’s logistical and proxy support networks rather than leadership directly. Without strikes on senior figures or visible internal unrest, the market reflects that distinction: odds are rising but remain single-digit. The regime’s ability to sustain operations under this kind of sustained infrastructure degradation is the open question.

A YES share in the regime fall market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 11.8x return. That bet requires either further destruction of regime capabilities or a leadership disruption that hasn’t happened yet.

Watch for strikes on senior Iranian officials or large-scale protests, either of which could move probabilities sharply. State media activity matters too: public appearances by key leaders or signs of regime consolidation would signal stability and likely push odds back down.

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