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Iran and Lebanon launched missile attacks on Israel, leading the U.S. to issue a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Traders are reacting to the military escalation by lowering odds across all ceasefire dates. April 7 is at 1.1% YES, showing little confidence in a quick resolution. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES. The April 30 market saw the biggest drop, falling to 17.5% from 24% in one day.
Volume at $430,773 in USDC over the last 24 hours shows real conviction behind these moves. The April 7 market needs $12,367 to shift 5 percentage points, indicating a thin order book. Meanwhile, the April 30 market saw a 2-point spike, suggesting some traders see buying opportunities at lower odds.
The missile attacks and U.S. ultimatum suggest a hardening of positions, making a near-term ceasefire unlikely. A YES at 1.1¢ for April 7 means a $1 payout if resolved, but odds suggest that’s a long shot. The biggest market uptick from April 30 to May 31 hints at a potential pivot point traders are watching.
Watch for any U.S. or Iranian official statements that could change these dynamics. Key signals would include changes in rhetoric or actions from intermediaries like Qatar or Oman, indicating a shift towards diplomacy.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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