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The U.S. confirmed a rescue operation after Iran claimed to have downed a U.S. fighter jet. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 jumped to 85.5% YES, up from 60% the previous day.
Traders reacted quickly. The April 30 market surged 25.5 points, reflecting increased expectations of U.S. ground involvement. The December 31 market also rose, now at 87.5% YES, up from 70%.
Daily trading volume for these markets hit $4.26M in USDC. The order book depth is significant, with $998K needed to move the April 30 price by five points, indicating strong institutional interest. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, likely from a large order.
A confirmed combat loss suggests vulnerability and increases the likelihood of ground force deployment. With April 30 odds at 86% YES, a share pays $1 if U.S. troops enter Iran by then—a 1.16x return. This bet depends on further escalation or confirmation of ground operations.
Watch for statements from Trump, Hegseth, or CENTCOM, and any Congressional War Powers actions, as these could impact market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 85.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 87.5% YES
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