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A U.S. special ops mission rescued an F-15E officer inside Iran, signaling active ground operations. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is at 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago.
This leap reflects the confirmation of U.S. ground presence in Iran, bolstered by the successful extraction operation amid ongoing Operation Epic Fury. The April 30 market shows traders factoring in the heightened likelihood of continued operations, with a 24-point increase in a day. The December 31 market also rose to 90.5% YES, indicating sustained confidence in prolonged U.S. presence.
The CSAR mission, involving extensive CIA and military coordination, underscores U.S. operational reach. The largest single move was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, suggesting a significant buy-in driven by the operation’s success. With volume at $4.2M in USDC changing hands daily for April, this market is robust. It takes $84,737 to move the odds 5 points, indicating institutional-level engagement.
This development marks a shift from purely aerial and naval dominance to confirmed ground operations, aligning with bullish YES signals for US forces entering Iran. The risk calculus changes with boots on the ground. At 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if confirmed by April 30 — a decent payoff for those confident in further operational disclosures.
Watch for Pentagon briefings, CENTCOM updates, and any shifts in rhetoric from Congress regarding war powers. Trump’s ultimatum on the Strait adds pressure, suggesting imminent military or diplomatic moves.
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