Iran’s Ghalibaf advisor warns Trump of escalation unless he surrenders in 20 hours

An advisor to Iran’s Ghalibaf has warned Trump of escalation unless he surrenders within 20 hours. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Traders are reacting to the threat of military escalation. The April 15 market shows a slight drop to 6% YES, while the April 30 market is at 18% YES, down from 24% a day ago. The May 31 odds saw the steepest decline, falling to 36% from 46%.

Liquidity in these markets is notable, with the April 7 market trading $22,948 in USDC daily. It takes just $12,367 to shift the odds by 5 points, showing vulnerability to large trades. The June 30 and December 31 markets remain stable at 51.5% and 68.5% YES, reflecting longer-term expectations.

The ultimatum’s impact depends on whether Iran’s proxies act. The market’s quick response shows traders’ sensitivity to potential escalation. A proxy attack would severely impact ceasefire probabilities. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire would pay $1 if resolved, but it requires believing in rapid diplomacy.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM and actions by Iranian proxies like the Houthis. Any move beyond rhetoric could further lower ceasefire odds.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES

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