Former State Department analyst Aaron David Miller has expressed concerns over the United States’ ability to maintain control in the current geopolitical situation with Iran. Miller suggests that Iran might have a higher threshold for enduring conflict-related pain, which poses a risk of destabilizing events. The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026, remains unresolved despite a fragile ceasefire. The situation is compounded by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continued asymmetric attacks, adding uncertainty to the region’s stability.

Key Takeaways

• Miller’s commentary suggests that the United States may lack control in its dealings with Iran, affecting the probability of reaching a deal.
• Current market pricing indicates a decrease in confidence for the inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in a US-Iran deal by the end of 2026.
• The potential for increased instability and conflict escalation remains high, consistent with current market apprehensions.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any developments in US-Iran negotiations, particularly involving key figures such as President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Any announcements related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz or new military actions could further influence market perceptions. Upcoming statements from mediators or changes in military posturing in the region may provide additional insights into the likelihood of a US-Iran deal.

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