US to maintain Hormuz blockade indefinitely, says Secretary Hegseth

US Secretary of War Hegseth said the blockade will “stay as long as it takes.” The market for Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.

The Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement market fell 17.5 percentage points in 24 hours. Traders appear to read Hegseth’s language as a signal of prolonged US commitment. YES shares are priced at 40.5¢, offering a potential 2.47x return.

Related markets barely moved. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations contract sits at 3.7% YES, consistent with Hegseth making no mention of diplomatic engagement. The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement contract holds at 6.4% YES with no meaningful change.

Daily volume in the Hormuz blockade market is $32,536 in USDC. Depth is moderate: $7,404 moves the price 5 points, meaning a single large trade could still shift the odds noticeably.

Hegseth’s framing treats the blockade as a long-term measure, not a temporary escalation tool. The contrarian bet is YES at 40.5¢, paying 2.47x if the blockade is lifted by May 31. That bet requires believing in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or enough international pressure to force a reversal.

Watch for Trump’s next public statements on Iran, any multilateral pressure on the US to ease the blockade, and CENTCOM updates that might signal a strategic shift.

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