Countdown to review of US-Mexico-Canada Agreement begins
The first mandatory six-year review of the USMCA kicks off in 2026, with the US signaling it may not extend the deal as written.
The clock on North America’s most important trade framework is ticking. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the deal that replaced NAFTA in 2020, hits its first mandatory six-year review milestone on July 1, 2026, and the early signs suggest this will be anything but a rubber stamp.
Reports emerging in late June 2026 indicate the US administration is preparing to announce that it will not extend the USMCA in its current form. That single decision, if confirmed, starts a decade-long sunset countdown that could see the agreement expire entirely on July 1, 2036.
How the review actually works
If all three parties agree to extend, the agreement runs for another 16 years, potentially through 2042. If they don’t, annual reviews kick in and the clock starts running toward a hard expiry.
The agreement entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing a trade framework, NAFTA, that had governed North American commerce since 1994.
Domestic preparations have been underway since the fall of 2025. The US public comment period opened on September 17, 2025, with formal hearings scheduled for December 3-5, 2025. Bilateral negotiations between the US and Mexico were formally announced on May 27, 2026.
What’s actually on the table
The USMCA governs roughly $1.3 trillion in annual trade across three economies. The review discussions are expected to center on three broad areas: automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, and digital trade provisions.
Automotive is the most politically charged. The USMCA requires that a significant percentage of a vehicle’s content originate in North America to qualify for zero tariffs, and a portion of that work must be performed by workers earning above a wage threshold.
The agreement included a new rapid-response mechanism allowing complaints about specific facilities in Mexico that deny workers the right to organize.
The USMCA’s digital trade provisions cover cross-border data flows and prohibitions on data localization requirements.
What this means for investors and markets
The sunset mechanism gives all parties until 2036 before anything actually expires.
If Washington is conducting parallel tracks with Ottawa and Mexico City separately, rather than pushing for a single three-party process, it suggests the US sees different leverage points with each partner. That approach was used in 2018 when the Trump administration negotiated USMCA.