White House adviser says Trump’s posts show progress on Iran talks

White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett says Trump’s posts show progress on Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 47.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday.

Hassett’s comments moved the market on whether Trump might agree to Iranian oil sanction relief. The drop from 62% to 47.5% in 24 hours suggests traders initially overestimated how close a diplomatic breakthrough was.

The sub-markets for April all sit at 47.5%, pointing to genuine uncertainty about resolution. A sharp 6-point drop at 9:40 PM indicates traders are reacting to mixed signals from the administration, particularly with ongoing military actions complicating the picture. The cost to shift these odds by 5 points is only $818, meaning even modest capital flows can move the price.

Trading volume at $18,054 in USDC shows decent engagement but not strong conviction. Traders appear to be waiting for clearer signals before committing heavily. The largest price move, a 6-point slide, came as traders digested the specifics of Hassett’s statements alongside the broader geopolitical situation.

Hassett’s remarks may signal a genuine shift toward negotiation, but skepticism remains. At 48¢, buying YES offers a potential 2.08x return if Trump agrees to terms by month-end. The question for traders is whether the current dialogue is substantive or just rhetoric.

Keep an eye on Trump’s upcoming social media activity and any official statements from CENTCOM. A shift in military posture or an explicit mention of an agreement from Trump would be the clearest catalysts.

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