White House to rank NATO allies by military support in new proposal

The White House plans to classify NATO allies as “naughty” or “nice” based on their military support for US operations against Iran, while the market for US withdrawal from NATO before April 30 sits at 1% YES.

The proposal has stirred tension within the alliance. The market for US withdrawal from NATO by end of 2026 is more relevant as a longer-term measure. Separately, odds of no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 are at 8.4% YES, reflecting skepticism about near-term diplomatic progress. View the market.

The NATO withdrawal by April 30 sub-market is at 0.5% YES. It resolves in seven days and ticked up from 0% yesterday. Explore the market.

USDC traded over the last 24 hours was $1,026, with a face value of $170,387. The market is thin: it takes $3,108 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, so the price is unlikely to move without large orders.

For traders watching US-Iran diplomacy, a YES share on no qualifying meeting by June 30 costs 8¢ and pays $1 if no meeting occurs, a 12.5x return.

Watch for statements from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte during his Washington visit. Comments on alliance cohesion or US-NATO relations could move these markets.

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