Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Islamabad for Iran talks this Saturday. The chance of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 6% YES, down from 10% a day ago.

The news of these indirect talks hasn’t moved the market upward. The April 30 peace deal market is at 6%, dropping from 10% in the past 24 hours. The May 31 market at 33.5% and June 30 market at 52.5% show more confidence over longer timelines. The 27-point jump between April and May suggests traders expect any deal to come in late May at the earliest.

In the diplomatic meetings market, odds of a meeting by April 30 are flat at 1.9%. The Islamabad talks are indirect, with no direct engagement between top US and Iranian officials, which keeps expectations low. Face value volume is $27,673 with actual USDC traded at $613, meaning this thin market can swing on minimal input.

The indirect format of these talks works against expectations of a quick resolution. Longer-term contracts in May and June carry higher probabilities. At 6¢, buying YES for an April 30 peace deal pays 16.7x, but that requires believing a major breakthrough is days away.

Watch for announcements from the Islamabad talks, particularly if Vice President JD Vance ends up joining. A White House or State Department statement confirming progress could move these odds quickly.

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